Shaaz Nasir

Archive for December, 2010|Monthly archive page

2011 in One Word: Debt

In Uncategorized on December 31, 2010 at 12:34 am

Mind the Debt.

Mind these Questions.

With record spending comes record debt: is this Europe’s last chance to remain significant?

“USA USA USA print all the way” – New Chant?

Is this the year for the shy private sector to catch the baton from the wheezing public sector?

Chindia in Africa: is Canada missing the boat…again?

Will this be the year in which China and India work together?

Entering a new decade can the United Nations avoid a ban ki moon eclipse?

IMF,WB, and WTO move aside for a truly Asian based IO?

 

It’s clear

Most of the issues that will influence your life in 2011 can derived from

Debt (over load or lack of)

Food For Thought

The only man who sticks closer to you in adversity than a friend is a creditor.

Creditors have better memories than debtors.  ~Benjamin Franklin

Promises make debt, and debt makes promises.  ~Dutch Proverb

Today, there are three kinds of people:  the have’s, the have-not’s, and the have-not-paid-for-what-they-have’s.  ~Earl Wilson

What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience? -Adam Smith

MTG WISHES YOU A HAPPY NEW YEAR!

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David Beckham and Friedman: Free kick the Market

In Advice, Canada, Finance, Globalization on December 28, 2010 at 10:27 pm

Article of the Week!

Below is an interesting take on economic predictions based the assumption of perfect knowledge.

Enjoy !

Don’t expect markets to bend it like Beckham

By John Kay

Published: December 28 2010 21:51 | Last updated: December 28 2010 21:51

Several years ago, The Daily Telegraph made an unlikely claim about Britain’s most famous footballer. Under the headline “David Beckham a physics genius”, the paper reported a study describing the differential equations that must be solved to compute the trajectory of the ball in a famous Beckham goal.

The relationship between intention and outcome in sport had been highlighted many years earlier in a much cited joint article by the doyen of Chicago economics, Milton Friedman, and the great statistician Leonard Jimmie Savage. Friedman and Savage suggested that the shots of an expert billiard player would be those an accomplished physicist would calculate using knowledge of equations of motion. Like Beckham, the billiard player might not be capable of actually making such calculations, but the assumption that he did would accurately describe his play.

Friedman and Savage were defending the use of unrealistic assumptions in economic reasoning. The only thing that mattered, they claimed, was the accuracy of predictions. Friedman built on these ideas in another article, “The methodology of positive economics”. Fifty years later, economists continue to claim justification for implausible assumptions on the basis of his argument.

The analogy Friedman and Savage used applies only to expert billiard players. If you try to predict my own play using the assumption of perfect calculation, you will not predict well: you might do better to assume that the ball will move randomly. But expert billiard players are those who make excellent shots and they do so even if neither they nor we quite understand how they do it. This is what enables us to recognise them as expert.

The unrealistic assumption of perfect shots works only because of a process of selection in which players like me are eliminated. Thanks to the mathematical work of evolutionary biologists over the past 50 years, we now understand that arguments such as this can be extremely powerful. Darwin’s insight was to show that evolution could produce outcomes beyond the scope of even the most complex calculations. Results might seem to be the outcome of extensive optimisation even though no one had done, or could do, the maths.

Selection processes are found in social life, in sport, in business and finance, as well as in biology. Natural selection is seen in the commercial world: only profitable companies survive, and only successful traders keep trading. But the context of natural selection defines the narrow limits of the argument that Friedman and Savage developed. Their example does not establish a general case for accepting theories based on unrealistic assumptions. In fact, it shows the limits of such an argument.

The assumption that the shot played is the best available is useful in explaining the strokes made by a single expert billiard player. But that assumption is useless for explaining the interaction between two expert billiard players. A high-level game between experts is impressive because their play is nearly perfect, yet exciting and involving only because their play is not perfect. To predict the outcome of a match, you need to focus on the imperfections.

What is important in billiards is the result, not the play: and what matters in business and finance is the outcome, not the process. In business and finance, as in billiards, the imperfections are critical and you can anticipate the result, or understand the outcome, only by appreciating these imperfections.

Most profit-making opportunities in business have already been taken. The people who make money, either as entrepreneurs or as traders, are those who find those profit opportunities that have not already been taken. In securities markets the efficient market hypothesis is largely true but attractive investment opportunities are found only when the efficient market hypothesis is not true. And it is when the hypothesis is not true that we observe market dislocations.

The imperfections of markets explain who makes money, and who loses it; why economic growth sometimes falters, and how it then recovers. Friedman and Savage’s metaphor was designed to explain how we might predict economic events by assuming perfect knowledge even if that assumption of perfect knowledge was unrealistic. But their metaphor illustrates even more clearly why economic predictions based on the assumption of perfect knowledge are so often misleading.

“ECONOMIC ASSSSUMMMPPTTIIIIIOOOOOOONNSSSSSS!!!!”

BTW ….funny how the free kick was against Greece….

FOR THE RECORD ….David did take physics courses to further improve his game

SHOCKER….Freidman was bad at soccer

How to lose 20 pounds

In Advice, Attire, Blog, Exercise, Experience, Failure, Faith, Fashion, Fat, Film, Food, Uncategorized on December 27, 2010 at 1:20 am

Why 20?

Since 2006 I have been on the quest for a healthier lifestyle. As mentioned in one of the most popular posts on MTG, https://mindthegapcanada.wordpress.com/2010/10/05/how-i-lost-52-pounds/ , phase one was covered.

Now I stand weighing 200 pounds at 6 foot and 2 inches and ready to enter the final phase of reaching my potential.

200 pounds leaves me at 25.7 on the BMI which is still considered overweight

at 180 pounds allows me to enter a sweet spot of 23.5 which is classified as normal.

Phase 1 was mainly based on cardio through sports and especially a ruthless treadmill regime. The “icing on the cake” was to switch over to jogging 5 km around 3-4 times a week.

Phase 2 will bring things back to the basics as I embraced the treadmill once again but introduce heavy amounts of weight training. Starting as soon as possible, regular sessions will be scheduled among my school work and such. Aiming for 4 times a week at uOttawa or/and Good Life.

Mind the BMI!!!

Some flaws with the BMI, I am sure some healthy football players are classified as overweight as weight and hieght are the only things factored in. Furthermore, some healthy guys are big boned and may be misdiagnosed as overweight in which loosing more would actually be unhealthy.

Since I would be weight training there is a strong chance of me actually gaining weight. But as long as I feel and look superb who cares about some number?

I shall use the 180 as a motivator

Before
Now
Future
?
note to readers: please talk to your doctor before trying anything. MTG does not replace your doctor.

Don’t Drop It

In Advice, Friends, Future, Uncategorized on December 25, 2010 at 1:43 pm

Not that many people know, but I truly enjoy art in all its forms from creating to consuming. From short films, amateur photography, attempting abstract art, to some lame poetry, art is where I am content. My passion for economics is matched or sometimes overtaken by the desire to embrace a side of me neglected for far too long. While in Oxford, art class opened a new world of processing information from places within me I never knew existed. This feeling for art was further developed when visiting museums in Paris, London, Brussels, and New Delhi. I was truly fortunate to have experienced such an eclectic mixture of artwork from around the world.

I have made many short films /simple clips that I will now begin to share with you. For the past 4 years during the chase for success while studying international economics and developments, I dropped one of my passions on the way. Below is just one of my works. It’s a drive some friends and I took while on our break. Around 4 hours of video is showcased in under 2 minutes on the backdrop of one of my favourite songs “Don’t Cross”.

There are many more to come, some from Hong Kong, Beijing, and even old paintings from the past might be shown on MTG. At the end of the day we must refocus on what makes us content with our-selfs. If you had a passion in the past and was forced to drop it, go back and pick it up because with very step we take we must mind this devastating gap. The gap between doing the things we love versus doing the things we must.

Mind the Fakes

In Advice, Canada, Culture, Experience, Failure, Faith, Fashion, Fasting, Globalization, Uncategorized, World on December 24, 2010 at 12:46 am

the fakes stay close , like a shadow , during the sunshine

but those fakes leave us when we must enter the shade

be afraid of being played while you enter the meadow blindly

led ever so kindly

 

 

Mind the Laugh

In Experience, Failure, Friends, Future, Uncategorized on December 19, 2010 at 10:58 pm

Laugh….it’s all I can do. At the mirror, everyone, the world… just laugh it all out….lol or lmao whatever you call it, it’s all I can do

I must admit.

Laugh with or at over some chit-chat or combat

who wants to have the backbone to be the last one laughing on a self made thrown

all alone ?